2024年第一季全球金融市场重点

 

2024年第一季度全球金融市场出现了重大发展。 以下是主要亮点：

 

2024年初，美国股市持续上涨。 即使利率长期保持较高的威胁并未扰乱其稳健表现。 尽管预计2024年联邦储备系统不会再进行利率削减，但股市在第一季度表现出色，获得了超过10%的回报。 科技股引领了市场上涨，特别是那些被认为最有可能从人工智能繁荣中受益的公司。 价值股也参与了上涨行情。 与此同时，由于联邦储备系统可能将利率削减推迟到年中，债券市场的表现受到了打击。

 

2024年第一季度，中国国内生产总值达到29.63万亿人民币，同比增长5.3%，经过恒定价格调整，环比增长1.6%。 这种增长超出了预期，可以归因于关键制造业和服务业的强劲产出和活动。 因此，中国有望实现年度经济增长目标。 值得注意的是，经济的各个领域，如外贸和外资、民营企业的增加值输出，在1月至3月期间持续恢复，经历了长时间的低增长期后。

 

香港股市经历了波动，恒生指数下跌了3%。 市场在3月份出现了回升的迹象，交易活跃度增加，重要公司公布了年度业绩报告。 原材料板块表现良好，而医疗保健和房地产板块表现较弱。

 

 

AQUMON的投资组合表现如何？

 

受益于美国股市良好的状态，我们的投资组合「美好未来」成功地利用了市场的上涨。 在2024年第一季度，尽管标普500指数增长了10.16%，我们的投资组合表现更出色，增长了10.73%，超越市场0.57%。

 

 

同样地，在中国市场上，我们的「低估值潜力股」投资组合也超越了中证500指数。 在2024年第一季度，尽管中证500指数增长了3.10%，我们的投资组合却实现了卓越的4.33%增长，超越市场1.23%。

 

 

尽管香港股市面临着严峻的挑战，我们的旗舰投资组合SmartGlobal 始终能够稳定地实现卓越的收益。 在2024年第一季度，尽管恒生指数下跌了-2.97%，我们的投资组合，在选定的风险水平下，始终表现优于市场，实现了正向收益。

 

 

 

第二季市场展望

 

出人意料的是，经济在第一季度不仅成功避免了衰退，而且表现比最初预期的更强劲。 然而，对通胀的担忧仍然存在。 展望第二季度，由于联邦储备系统准备进行即将到来的降息，人们对前景更加乐观。 市场参与者对这些降息的时间和节奏有了更现实的预期。

 

联邦储备系统降息的预期时间表已延后至至少六月。 最初，投资者预计2024年可能有五次降息，但目前的预期表明，最多只有三次降息。

 

中国今年确定了约5%的经济增长目标。 然而，对于应对房地产危机和刺激消费的具体措施，目前掌握的信息有限，引发了批评。 尽管如此，越来越多的投资者认为中国的刺激措施开始对实际经济表现产生积极影响。 在第二季度，由于中国经济数据预计进一步改善，以及对美国降息预期的增加，恒生指数有可能测试18000点的水平。

 

About us

AQUMON is a Hong Kong based award-winning financial technology company. Our mission is to leverage smart technology to make next-generation investment services affordable, transparent and accessible to both institutional clients and the general public. Through its proprietary algorithms and scalable, technical infrastructure, AQUMON’s automated platform empowers anyone to invest and maximize their returns. AQUMON has partnered with more than 100 financial institutions in Hong Kong and beyond, including AIA, CMB Wing Lung Bank, ChinaAMC, and Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank. Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, the Alibaba Entrepreneurs Fund, affiliate of BOC International Holdings Limited, Zheng He Capital Management and Cyberport are among AQUMON's investors. 

 

The brand is held under Magnum Research Limited and is licensed with Type 1, 4 and 9 under the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) of Hong Kong. AQUMON is also licensed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Asset Management Association of China (AMAC).

 

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